Connor (2016) suggests that economic growth in these countries and the availability of short-term work visas have attracted large numbers of migrants with the number of foreign-born residents growing by 61% between 2005 and 2015. On the whole, the relationship between population and economic growth is not straightforward. An interesting result from early efforts to model endogenous growth is that these models often suggest that there is a positive relationship between population growth and per capita economic growth in contrast to the predictions of the neoclassical growth models. Most of the work reviewed in this article supports the idea that population growth is an important factor in overall economic growth and may even contribute to increased growth in per capita output in some cases. In a meta-analysis of studies of economic growth and population growth, Heady and Hodge (2009) found that declining population growth rates in high-income countries slow economic growth while high population growth rates in low-income countries lower their economic growth. There are still many who take exception to conclusions such as these, arguing that the world is currently overpopulated putting unsustainable strains on resources and the environment. In high-income countries, population growth is low and in some cases negative giving rise to age structures with a high proportion of elderly people in the population. Do (2016) defines economic growth as a primary factor and material condition for social problems; when the economy is improving, correspondingly, social conditions improve. Some society journals require you to create a personal profile, then activate your society account, You are adding the following journals to your email alerts, Did you struggle to get access to this article? relationship between population and economic growth is not straightforward. Geographic regions vary somewhat across the tables according to whether the data are from the Maddison project (World Economics, 2016) or the World Bank (2017). Trajectories of population growth do not tend to include large and dramatic turning points so it is unlikely that the population trends in various parts of the world can be significantly altered in the short run by policy changes. Declaration of Conflicting InterestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. The population in one way constitutes a source of labor that could be utilized to boost the country’s production. The other types of endogenous growth models described by Jones also predicted a positive relationship between population and per capita economic growth although there have been several representations that allow for a negative correlation between these variables (see Strulik, 2005 and Prettner & Prskawetz, 2010). Shackleton (2013) estimates that average annual growth in U.S. MFP over the period 1870 to 2010 was between 1.6% and 1.8% which is about the same as average annual growth of per capita GDP over that period (1.8%) based on the Maddison Project (2013) data. Members of _ can log in with their society credentials below, This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (. Most of the increase in homelessness between 2006 and 2016 occurred in persons living in ‘severely’ crowded dwellings, which increased from 15.9 per 100,000 population in 2006 to … In analyzing human behavior that determines the type and amount of quality that is acquired over time, the key to the analysis is the relation between the returns from additional quality and the costs of acquiring it. Other authors argued that fears about population growth were overblown suggesting that population growth would stimulate technological innovations that would allow food production to keep up with the growing population (Boserup, 1965) or that larger populations would result in more brains that could be applied to solving any resource problems that might arise (Simon, 1981). Higher population growth is generally associated with larger families and large families will have to divide inheritances among more children. There is some migration among the low- and moderate-income countries but the main flows are to Europe and North America as well as such regional magnets as South Africa. Forty-three percent of the population in sub-Saharan Africa, where population is growing 2.7% per year, is under the age of 15 while only 3% is over 65. In low-income countries, rapid population growth is likely to be detrimental in the short and medium term because it leads to large numbers of dependent children. It has also been argued that population growth induced by high levels of fertility, as is often the case in low-income countries, can reduce general well-being in contrast to growth resulting from declines in mortality rates generally believed to have more benign impacts on savings and economic growth. The email address and/or password entered does not match our records, please check and try again. It is still possible that growth in output would have been greater if population growth rates had been somewhat lower. In China, for example, average annual population growth between 1990 and 2015 was only 0.76%, perhaps as a result of that country’s former policy of limiting families to one child, while average annual per capita GDP growth was 8.72% for an overall economic growth rate of 9.48% per year. Note that a constant annual population growth rate of 1% means that population doubles every 69.3 years. There may be limits to the ability of market forces and technology to overcome potential resource constraints or to protect such environmental goods as clean air and water but it would be wrong to think that human ingenuity is completely impotent when it comes to creating a sustainable environmental future without severe population reductions. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. The U.S. Census Bureau (2017) estimates that crude birth and mortality rates in the EU are about equal at 10 per thousand people suggesting that the natural rate of population growth is zero. [A general review of the discussion at the Beijing International Symposium on Population and Development]. The quantity, quality, structure, distribution, and movement of a population can help or hinder the rate of economic development. It is ironic that an economy can stall in the short run due to population growth and also population decline. Population and migration projections are from the U.S. Census Bureau (2017). Health performance and economic performance are interlinked. Create a link to share a read only version of this article with your colleagues and friends. Population is very closely linked to the economic development of a society. Dealing with the relationship between population and the economic development of a society properly can bring about rapid improvement in the economic development and standard of living of that society. Its magnitude and implications for development. Malthusian perspectives on the effects of population growth on social and economic well-being were revived by Paul Ehrlich (1968) and others in the latter part of the 20th century when population growth rates reached very high levels, primarily in low-income countries. The results reported in Table 1 can shed light on the timing of the demographic transition in various parts of the world. Because the difference in population growth to 2200 between the UN-high and -low scenarios is comparable to a 1.4 percentage point constant difference in population growth, we show in SI Appendix, Fig. The implication of Malthus’s model is that average incomes will always be driven down by population growth to a level that is just adequate for the population’s subsistence. In any case, economic growth will remain important in the 21st century for at least two reasons. Unfortunately, many economists go on to give GDP far more credit than it deserves. Inherited wealth is an important part of the concentration of capital which, Piketty (2014) shows, contributes to greater economic inequality. The emerging Asian economies are catching up with the high-income countries, registering significant growth in per capita GDP with population growth contributing relatively little to overall economic growth. This is so because the relation­ship between population growth and economic development is intricate, complex and interacting. . Introduction The issue of population and economic growth is as old as economics itself. For example, Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1990) add human capital accumulation which enhances the quality of the labor force to Solow’s model and find that empirical evidence is consistent with the theoretical result that higher population growth rates lead to lower steady-state economic growth while higher savings rates have the opposite effect. If this is correct, the problem posed by Piketty’s inequality may be at least partially self-correcting. (2005) point to falling labor forces as the baby boom generation retires and workers choose to work fewer hours coupled with lower per capita output growth as causes of slower GDP growth. The more recent acceleration of economic growth in China and other emerging economies can be seen in Tables 3 and 4 covering the period 1960 to 2015. Both statistical sources are used in computing the estimated growth rates reported in this article. Irwin (2016) and Baker et al. Many felt that both population growth and economic growth needed to be scaled back or eliminated entirely to avoid an existential crisis. In the future, these children will enter the labor force and economic growth should increase. He predicts that average annual per capita GDP growth in the United States will be only 0.8% over the period 2015 to 2040, far lower than the average growth rate of 2.11% (Gordon’s estimate) achieved between 1920 and 2014. In recent years, there has been a fairly steady flow of migrants primarily from low- and moderate-income countries to high-income countries as shown in Table 8. Search across a wide variety of disciplines and sources: articles, theses, books, abstracts and court opinions. It turns out that economists have developed theoretical arguments supporting both the idea that population growth slows growth in per capita output and the opposite idea that population growth stimulates greater economic growth. Sign in here to access free tools such as favourites and alerts, or to access personal subscriptions, If you have access to journal content via a university, library or employer, sign in here, Research off-campus without worrying about access issues. Piketty (2014, p. 73) points to evidence that average annual world economic growth between 1700 and 2012 was 1.6% made up of equal parts population growth and per capita output growth of 0.8% each. National income has a direct effect on the development of health systems, through insurance coverage and public spending, for instance. Login failed. Branko Milanovic (2016, p. 143) argues that realizing the full benefits of globalization requires the free movement of goods, services, technology, and ideas as well as the exchange of such productive inputs as labor and capital. S6 that the difference in optimal policy under TU between these population trajectories is similar to changing the rate of pure time preference from 0.1% to 1.5%. Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov, Get the latest research information from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus, Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/. According to Malthus, population tends to grow geometrically, whereas food supplies grow only arithmetically. Similar results are found for India and Indonesia although population growth in these countries has been much higher than in China (Table 4). In fact, population growth in the United Kingdom between 1820 and 2010 was moderately higher at 0.57% than was the case for the previous 820 years while annual growth in per capita GDP was substantially more rapid at 1.28% after 1820 (World Economics, 2016 and The Maddison Project, 2013). For more information view the SAGE Journals Sharing page. While the world economy could plausibly benefit from more open borders, the prevalence of anti-immigration political movements in Europe and other high-income countries makes it unlikely that the global movement of people will be as free as the global movement of goods, services, and capital any time soon. Wealthier countries have healthier populations for a start. Average annual compound growth rates are calculated using the formula: V = Aert where V is the final value, A the initial value, r the rate of growth, t the number of years, and e is the exponential. Baker et al. Slowing population growth in high-income countries not only means lower economic growth rates but also an increased burden on the working population to support the growing numbers of retirees. Other studies have dealt more directly with the causal relationship between population and per capita income. As a result, the estimates recorded in the data sets may be somewhat less reliable than would be the case for more recent statistics. This product could help you, Accessing resources off campus can be a challenge. Contact us if you experience any difficulty logging in. For the world as a whole, over the period 1990 to 2015, the correlation between population growth and real per capita GDP growth, based on World Bank (2017) data, was −0.1849 suggesting that these two variables were uncorrelated during that period. Population and Economic GrowthPopulation and Economic Growth The debate on the relationship between population and economic growth could be traced back to Malthus. Baker et al. He notes that much progress has been made in freeing up the movement of goods, services, and capital but the international movement of labor remains restricted. Population growth has slowed everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa but still accounted for almost half of world economic growth over the period 1990-2015. And it is a basic truth that poverty, mainly through infant malnourishment and mortality, adversely affects life expectancy. For the decade of the 1990s, annual growth in per capita output in these countries averaged 1.37% compared with a rate of 4.15% for the period 2000-2015 (Table 5). MFP and per capita economic growth are distinct concepts but may be correlated, in part, perhaps, because the same variable (GDP) is in the numerator of both. I have read and accept the terms and conditions. The Persian Gulf states are classified as high-income countries by the World Bank and have unusually large foreign-born populations. On the positive side, an increasing population means an increase in the supply of labour— a basic factor of production. The status of the economy determines the appropriate level. In the rural areas, population pressure often leads to rural unemployment and a reduction of incomes because a large number of people occupy the land. Population growth affects many phenomena such as the age structure of a country’s population, international migration, economic inequality, and the size of a country’s work force. Population Division, et al. During the recession of 2008-2009, both MFP and per capita GDP growth rates were negative in all but a few OECD countries (OECD, 2017). While these growth rates may appear to be very small, they can lead to impressive increases over long periods of time. There exists a strong positive association between average income (or wealth) and indicators of population health status, which is evident both across countries and within countries.1,2 Illustration 1depicts indicators of population health (life expectancy at birth, under-five mortality rates, and the prevalence of stunting), all in logs, against log Gross National Income (GNI) per capita. All the GDP estimates reported in this study have been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. Immigration increases the working age population thereby easing the burden of supporting a large elderly population. Considering the case of Mexico, the objective of this study was to analyze the dynamic relationship between population growth and economic growth, through a structural break cointegration analysis for the period 1960-2014. Population, health, and the environment [citation needed] (PHE) is an approach to human development that integrates family planning and health with conservation efforts to seek synergistic successes for greater conservation and human welfare outcomes than single sector approaches.There is a deep relationship between population, health and environment. This can be attained by increasing the standards of living of the people – especially by increasing the consumption level of food, healthcare, education etc; institute political, social and economic sectors that advance the values for human dignity thereby boosting the peoples’ sense of worth and raising the opportunities enjoyed by the people by way of increasing the var… GDP is a measure of economic output and is also an indicator of national income which can be defined as total output net of capital depreciation plus net income from sources outside the country (Piketty, 2014, p. 45). With the Industrial Revolution, however, both income and population growth began to increase as did the supplies of food. From 1000 to 1820, average annual population growth in England was about 0.29% while per capita GDP growth averaged 0.12% for an overall average annual economic growth rate of 0.41% according to data from World Economics (2016). Please read and accept the terms and conditions and check the box to generate a sharing link. These we organize by major categories of economic activity, indicators of how goods, services and opportunities are distributed; and by categories of assets, material or nonmaterial resources of utility and value. In contrast, many populous low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, would probably be better off with lower population growth (Becker et al., 1999). Eventually, birth rates begin to decline resulting in a return to lower population growth as the transition is completed.  |  B., Krugman, P. R. (, Becker, G. S., Laeser, E. L., Murphy, K. M. (, Derpsch, R., Friedrich, T., Kassam, A., Hongwen, L. (, Kerr, S. P., Kerr, W., Ozden, C., Parsons, C. (, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development . Some authors offer theoretical arguments and empirical evidence to show that robust population growth enhances economic growth while others find evidence to support the opposite conclusion. How did we get here? Gordon (2016) notes the same types of demographic changes as these authors and argues that stagnation in educational attainment, inequality, and government debt will largely offset the effects of any potential technological innovations. Population growth is falling in many parts of the world and once the demographic transition is completed in sub-Saharan Africa and other areas of robust population growth, world population growth will probably return to historic levels of less than 1% per year. A striking feature of the estimates in the Tables is that, with the exception of the immediate postwar period, economic growth in the United States has been slightly more rapid than in most Western European countries both in the 19th and early 20th centuries when it was catching up to the more advanced European economies and in more recent years. The U.S. Census Bureau (2017) predicts that natural population increases in the United States will continue to decline while net migration remains fairly constant. Economic and demographic change: A synthesis of models, findings and perspectives, Remember the population bomb? As dependents, the large number of children in sub-Saharan Africa will slow growth but once they enter the labor force, these countries can expect to reap a “demographic dividend” that will enhance economic growth. Economic development can be understood to mean the process by which the quality of life of the citizenry or population is improved. Google Scholar provides a simple way to broadly search for scholarly literature. FundingThe author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. Economic growth is an increase in the productive capacity of the economy and also an increase in real national income. It’s still ticking, The Development Center of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Immigration and African American wages and employment: Critically appraising the empirical evidence, The effect of immigration on productivity: Evidence from U.S. States, Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, About capital in the twenty-first century, Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth: A survey, Investigating the relationship between population and economic growth: An analytical study of India, A contribution to the theory of economic growth, The role of human capital and population growth in R&D-based models of economic growth, Modifying rice crop management to ease water constraints with increased productivity, environmental benefits, and climate resilience, Regional economic integration and economic growth in the COMESA region, 1980-2010, An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China, Boom or bust? Per capita GDP growth for these years was 1.82%, about the same as the average annual growth rate of 1.87% for the period 1946 to 2010 (The Maddison Project, 2013). Life expectancy at birth in Russia fell from 69.5 years in 1988 to 64.5 years in 1994 only returning to its previous high in 2011 after which it seems to have stabilized at 70.4 years. In the following sections of the article, the relationships between population and economic growth are analyzed to assess the implications of their likely evolution for growing inequality around the world and for population and migration policies. Population growth could be beneficial or detrimental to economic growth and economic growth could have an impact on population growth. Find out about Lean Library here, If you have access to journal via a society or associations, read the instructions below. Regressive population growth almost always hurts an economy. Data from 2010 was used for life expectancy and under-five mortality and the latest available observations for each cou… The reason for these contrasting effects is that declines in mortality provide incentives for people to save more which stimulates growth while increases in fertility have a negative impact on aggregate savings (Mierau & Turnovsky, 2014). The final section summarizes the evidence on the effects of population growth on economic growth and examines the predictions that long-term economic growth will be low as countries around the world complete the demographic transition and the potential for high economic growth from low-income countries catching up with countries with more advanced technological capabilities is exhausted. It is almost certain that world population will reach 10 billion over the next 50 years and as these people will have higher incomes on average than is the case today, food demand is expected to increase dramatically. Several analysts have investigated the relationship between population and per capita output growth by taking advantage of the natural experiment provided by the post-World War II baby boom in the United States, Canada, Australia, and much of Western Europe. Simon won the bet as the commodity prices fell substantially while the world added 800 million people to its population (Sabin, 2014). As a result, the natural population growth rate is likely to be very low. Still others find that the effects vary with the level of a country’s development, the source or nature of the population growth, or other factors that lead to nonuniform impacts. In 2012, about 15 million people emigrated from low- and moderate-income countries while high-income countries received about an equal number. In fact, per capita GDP growth in the EU outpaced that of the United States where economic growth would have averaged 2.41% instead of 3.04% if the U.S. population had increased at the same rate as that of the EU. COVID-19 is an emerging, rapidly evolving situation. Low population growth in high-income countries is likely to create social and economic problems while high population growth in low-income countries may slow their development. The precise make-up of geographic regions and other country classifications used by the World Bank can be found at https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups. As population growth rates have begun to fall in recent years, the possibility that food and natural resources will be exhausted by a larger population seems to be less of a preoccupation than the more likely danger that continued use of the earth’s resources at current rates will lead to climate change and other environmental problems. The concern of these writers was that world population would reach a level that would overwhelm the capacity of the earth and its resources to generate the food and other goods needed for human life. This chart shows that the rate of homelessness has changed from 50.8 per 10,000 population in 2001, to 45.2 per 10,000 population in 2006, 47.6 per 10,000 in 2011 and 49.8 per 100,000 population in 2016. A theoretical model is developed relating welfare to income and range of choice, and empirically testable implications are derived. The rate of population growth and the number of people living on earth have both increased spectacularly since the beginning of the nineteenth century. While European population growth rates slowed during the period 1913 to 2010, they accelerated somewhat in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The business cycle closely ( OECD, 2016 ) Malthus ( 1993 ) developed one of the but... Old as economics itself dependency rates classifications used by the world Bank can be found at:... In economic output has been studied extensively ( Heady & Hodge, 2009 ) in Real income... These models, rapid population growth rates slowed during the period 1913 to 2010, they accelerated somewhat in,... Gulf states are classified as high-income countries received about an equal number and public spending, for.! Rising inequality K., Kassam, A., Stoop, W. A.,,. Did realize a positive population growth on U.S. economic growth is controversial importance in his important book on inequality Thomas... 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Life expectancy ’ s inequality may be at least two reasons information view the SAGE Journals Sharing page importance economic... Contact us if you experience any difficulty logging in resulting in a country more children the of. Research interests include international trade, public policy, economic growth needed to be low- middle-income. Welfare economics the working age population thereby easing the burden of supporting a large elderly population and GrowthPopulation... Affects life expectancy to capital is of great interest both for demographers and for development economists question. World regions and Selected countries than it deserves the terms and conditions of your choice ), world regions other. Fundamental problems concerning the relationship between economic growth in its entirety by Piketty s! Innovations in food and agricultural production offer an encouraging example been adjusted to remove the effects of population economic. Growth on U.S. economic growth, abstracts and court opinions part of the unsustainable population growth is equal to growth... Growth leads to smaller amounts of capital and labor do not explain economic will... Below at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln noted earlier, the services of capital labor!, Stoop, W. A., Uphoff, N. ( welfare to income range... That both population growth rates mean that the average age of a society it was taken granted. & economics that MFP typically increases when the economy and also an increase in the longer,... Conundrum, we need to examine the relationship between population and per capita growth... Maddison and the rate of 1 % but has varied considerably across and... Any or all of the discussion at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln progessor of agricultural economics at the of... Capita GDP growth is as old as economics itself English Poor Laws economics.! You can download article citation data to the extent that greater freedom and capabilities improve performance! While birth rates begin to decline resulting in a uniform manner making them reasonable estimates of long-term economic.... Gdp, Selected countries, 1960-2015 independent, higher population growth rates would clearly lead to population. Are agreeing to our use of cookies purpose without your consent the population in one way a! Supporting a large elderly population strengths of market economies overall relationship between population and economic welfare growth is not only...

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